USDJPY steady ahead of the FOMC decision

Technical Analysis

USDJPY remains above its 100 day MA at 107.919. Third day in a row

The USDJPY remains steady in quiet trading ahead of the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET/18 GMT. The trading range for the day is only 19 pips. The 22 day average (about a month of trading) is at 59 pips. So volatility is down sharply today (so far at least).

Technically, the price moved above its 100 day moving average on Monday. That moving average currently comes in at 107.919. A close above would be the 3rd straight day above the moving average. Although above, the price is not exactly running with the bulls. The 50% retracement of the move down from the April high comes in at 108.413. Yesterday’s high price reached 108.365 and stalled.  Buyers/bullls will need to see a run above that midpoint retracement to gain more confidence. The 200 day moving average and 61.8% retracement both come in near the 109.35 level. That area would be the next upside target from the daily chart.  

Drilling down to the hourly chart (see chart below), the 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 108.054. Just below that is a lower trend line currently at 108.03. The 100 day moving averages at 107.919 (see the blue overlay line). Those would be the bearish steps for traders today.   

On the topside 108.254 and the high for the week at 108.364 are the obvious steps to the upside. 

USDJPY on the hourly chart.

Traders are trending water ahead of the FOMC.  The technical battle lines are drawn however from the daily and hourly charts.  Traders will be looking for the break with momentum.  

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