USD up trend is 99 months old soon. Is it over? No, another 12-24 months still to come


The headline is the in summary version of a client note from UBS on the US dollar. 

Its a detailed look at the US dollar trend, but adding to the to the headline points in brief.

When and how the dollar might turn is anyone’s guess

  • longterm dollar trend …  As of last month, it was still levying upward pressure … did not appear to be waning materially
  • medium term trend  …  duration of 2-5 years … more or less mirrors intra business cycle growth surges and slowdowns
  • shorter term one that averages about a year…. seems to relate to shocks caused by politics and supply disruptions to commodities … a modest dollar drag today … could reflect the … trade war coming home to roost and the drag on Chinese leading indicators passing, as fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and modest credit easing have begun to filter through


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