S&P put the odds of a recession over the next 12 months at near enough to a coin toss

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S&P Ratings analysts on US US recession risk.

  • Our qualitative assessment of recession risk over the next 12 months is 45%
  • within a wider range of 40%-50%
  • We see risks closer to 50%, the top of that range, heading into 2023 as cumulative rate hikes take hold.

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