GBPUSD can’t keep upside momentum going this week. What levels will be eyed next week.

Technical Analysis

Closing back below the 100 day MA…

The GBPUSD last Friday at 1.2496. That was just below the 38.2% of the move down from the March high at 1.25009 and below the 100 day MA.   On Monday, the price opened near the close but moved lower. On Tueday the price moved higher and extended above the 100 day MA, but could not sustain the upside momentum. The price closed near the MA level (blue line in the daily chart below).

On Wednesday, the price again took a peak above the 100 day MA (currently at 1.2486) but backed off.  

Finally on Thurday, the pair raced higher on the back of comments from EU commissioner Juncker that gave traders hope for Brexit deal.   

Today, the pair moved to a new two month high, but stalled at the mid July swing high (see daily chart above).  The inability to move higher – and less optimistic comments about a Brexit deal, -sent the pair back down.  The price fell back below the 100 day MA on two separate occasions today with the last in the last few hours of trading (see hourly chart below).  

The failure to stay above the 100 day MA is leaving a sour taste in the mouths of those who thought the break of the 100 day MA was going to mean something more than a one day close above the MA level.  

GBPUSD on the hourly chart

So we head into the week’s close, and into next week, with a bearish tilt. The buyers had 4 shots to take the price higher and away from the 100 day MA (PS it was the first break since May 2019), but that “try” failed.  

Maybe next week the price can regroup and work back above. (get and stay above is still bullish technically). Howver, until then the bears are in control. 

If the price cannot stay above 100 day MA next, week, the levels on the downside to eye would be at the 

  • 1.2437 level .That was the swing lows from Wednesday and Thursday.  
  • Just below that is the 200 hour MA at 1.23287. The price of the GBPUSD has not been below the 200 hour MA since September 4
  • The 50% retracement of the move up from the September 9 while at 1.24068
  • Then the 1.2380-82 area - swing highs from September 9 at September 10.

Was a disappointing week for the bulls on the failed breaks of its 100 day moving average and failure to extend above the 1.2580 level.  We will see next week if that disappointment continues over and the price moves back away from its 100 day moving average.


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